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Learning how to apply strategic foresight in civic education

Amidst a generation grappling with an uncertain future, it is clear that traditional problem-solving approaches are ill-equipped to meet the challenges ahead. This realisation has led to the emergence of strategic foresight as a powerful method for navigating uncertainty and shaping the future. Once utilised in the security and defence sectors, its application has expanded to policy-making bodies such as the European Commission and OECD. Many civil society organisations (CSOs) are also investing in practices for futures preparedness, analysing alternative futures and building anticipatory capacity in the attempt to strengthen crisis response mechanisms, but also – to proactively shape the future. In the following, we are exploring the concept of foresight, its distinction from forecasting, and most importantly – how incorporating strategic foresight into the civil society sector, and civic education in particular, can foster agility and empower citizens.

Understanding foresight

Foresight can be defined as the systematic exploration and analysis of possible futures to inform decision-making in the present. It involves identifying emerging trends, drivers of change, and critical uncertainties to anticipate potential challenges and opportunities. By creatively engaging with the future, foresight allows individuals and organisations to proactively shape their environment rather than being passive recipients of change.

Foresight vs. forecasting

Strategic foresight should not be confused with traditional forecasting approaches. Forecasting seeks to predict a single future outcome based on historical data and linear projections. In contrast, strategic foresight acknowledges the inherent complexity and uncertainty of the future, recognising that multiple plausible futures can emerge. It embraces a multidimensional perspective and explores alternative scenarios, enabling decision-makers to develop robust strategies that can withstand a range of possible futures.

Let’s consider a scenario where a city is experiencing rapid population growth and increasing urbanisation. Using strategic foresight, decision-makers explore various alternative futures and their implications. They consider factors such as technological advancements, environmental sustainability, and social dynamics. As a result, they develop strategies that prioritise investments in smart infrastructure, green spaces, and community engagement programs. This foresight-driven approach allows the city to proactively shape its development, taking into account multiple possible futures and considering the long-term well-being of its residents.

In contrast, a forecasting approach in the scenario described above might involve analysing historical population growth data and making linear projections based on past trends. The forecast might predict a specific percentage increase in population over the next decade. Based on this forecast, decision-makers may focus primarily on expanding existing infrastructure and services to accommodate the projected population growth. This approach relies on extrapolating past trends into the future and assumes a single, deterministic outcome.

The key distinction between foresight and forecast lies in their approaches to uncertainty, perspective, and flexibility. Foresight embraces multiple possible futures, acknowledges complexity, and enables decision-makers to develop adaptable strategies. Forecasting, on the other hand, seeks to predict a single future outcome based on historical data and linear projections, often assuming a more deterministic perspective.

How to apply strategic foresight

Wojciech Przybylski, a political analyst heading Visegrad Insight‘s policy foresight on European affairs (also the Editor-in-Chief of Visegrad Insight and President of the Res Publica Foundation) has proposed a comprehensive framework for strategic foresight. This method consists of the following core stages:

  1. Horizon scanning: Gathering and analysing a broad range of information from various sources to identify emerging trends, weak signals, and potential disruptors.
  2. Scenario building: Creating plausible and internally consistent narratives describing alternative future scenarios based on the insights gained from horizon scanning. These scenarios help decision-makers explore different possibilities and develop adaptable strategies.
  3. Impact analysis: Assessing the potential consequences and implications of each scenario on various aspects, such as policies, institutions, and society. This step aids in understanding the risks, opportunities, and trade-offs associated with each future trajectory.
  4. Strategy development: Designing robust strategies that are flexible enough to adapt to different scenarios and enable proactive responses to future changes. These strategies take into account the insights gained from the previous stages and promote long-term resilience and sustainability.
  5. Outreach: Communication is an essential part of a successful foresight process. Ultimately, strategic foresight helps shape informed public debate by engaging policy leaders together with the civil society in an exchange. The media, public meetings, and digital communication help in understanding implications of strategic choices and enable space for dissent.

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Foresight in the CSO sector

A mapping report by the International Civil Society Centre released in November 2022 explores foresight in practice and the readiness of the CSO sector to invest in futures thinking and building anticipatory capacity. While many CSOs see the benefits of using foresight in their work, the practical and structural barriers cited in the mapping – such as insufficient or inflexible funding dedicated to foresight and exploration, weak systems connecting foresight analysis to decision making, as well as limited practice of learning from each other and thinking together across the sector – are what currently prevents us to bridge the gap between imagining alternative futures and translating them into strategic action.

Foresight & civic education

Applied strategic foresight and anticipatory action in civic education have the enormous potential to enhance democratic resilience through building bottom-up preparedness for upcoming disruption and strengthening future literacy in local communities and microcosms. Civic education practitioners are, however, like the many others in the civil society sector, yet to learn how to successfully adopt foresight methodologies in their work. The absence of necessary skills and expertise, coupled with a lack of supportive conditions and financial resources, underscores the importance of collaboration and collective futures thinking. This collaboration becomes essential in cultivating dedication and active involvement in future preparedness efforts, while also bolstering the sector’s adaptability and resilience. By coming together and sharing knowledge and perspectives, stakeholders can overcome individual limitations and collectively address the challenges associated with strategic foresight implementation.

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By embracing a concerted and committed approach to strategic foresight, civic education practitioners can unlock countless advantages, including:

Agility and adaptability
Equipping individuals with the skills and mindset needed to navigate uncertainty and rapid change. By engaging in foresight exercises, individuals can develop the ability to anticipate and adapt to various future scenarios, enhancing their agility in addressing complex challenges.

Future-oriented thinking
Encouraging a forward-looking perspective, emphasising the exploration of alternative futures and their implications. By considering long-term trends, emerging issues, and potential disruptions, civic education becomes more proactive in preparing individuals for the future, ensuring they are better equipped to contribute to society.

Resilience and future-proofing
Equipping individuals with the tools to identify and prepare for potential challenges and disruptions. By considering multiple scenarios, civic education can help build resilience in individuals and communities, ensuring they are better prepared to navigate and respond to unforeseen circumstances or crises.

Through well-managed strategic foresight method thinking, individuals can develop the necessary skills, knowledge, and mindset to become future-ready citizens who actively contribute to shaping a better society.

At NECE, the theme of Futures is at the core of all our activities throughout 2023. We are dedicated to introducing the concept of foresight to the European civic education community. Our goal is to explore the potential of foresight methods for civic educators, helping the community anticipate and address democratic challenges. Equally important is the ability to teach this vital skill to different target groups. Through collaboration and support, we strive to foster a community that embraces foresight principles, using them as a guiding force to confidently navigate the complexities of the future with purpose.



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